Everyone’s Afraid of “Saturation.” Here’s Why It Will Never Happen in the Trades.

People love to talk about “saturated markets.”
Too many gyms. Too many coffee shops. Too many realtors.

But here’s the truth no one wants to admit: the trades will never be saturated, because we don’t even have enough schools to train the people who want in.

Think about it:

• How many plumbers do you know who are sitting around without work?

• How many electricians are begging for jobs?

• How many welders are struggling to find projects?

It doesn’t happen. In fact, it’s the opposite — jobs are going unfilled because there aren’t enough training programs to produce the workforce America needs.

That’s the real bottleneck.

1. The Scale of the Shortage

• There are ~7,500 trade schools in the U.S. — compared to over 4,000 colleges and universities. Sounds like a lot… until you realize there are 19,500 cities/towns in America. That means tens of thousands of communities don’t have a single trade school nearby.

• Welding alone is projected to need 360,000 new welders by 2027 (AWS data).

• The U.S. will need 80,000 new electricians per year just to keep pace with retirements and demand.

• The shortage of HVAC technicians is so acute that some regions wait weeks for service calls.

• Forklift repair? Only a handful of training programs nationwide, but nearly every warehouse in America relies on forklifts daily.

In other words, if every city over 100,000 people had just one well-run trade school, we’d still be short.

2. A City-by-City Breakdown

Here’s how it should look if we matched schools to population demand:

Now compare that to reality: most mid-sized U.S. cities have zero or maybe one small program.

3. Why Semester-Based Models Can’t Fix This

Traditional trade schools run like mini-colleges: semesters, waitlists, slow curriculum updates. That structure simply can’t scale.

Bootcamp-style programs fix that:

• Speed: 8–12 weeks to employment vs. 9-month semesters.

• Flexibility: evening, weekend, online modules.

• Specialization: add new programs quickly (EV charging, medical front desk, IT sales).

• Partnerships: Use local shops or clinics for hands-on training instead of building giant campuses.

While the old system is producing some workers, it’s too slow to meet demand. Bootcamps can multiply output without multiplying overhead.

4. Why “Saturation” Is a Myth

Here’s why the trades won’t ever saturate:

1. Geographic demand: a plumber in Dallas can’t fix a leak in Denver. Every community needs its own workforce.

2. Retirements: over 40% of the skilled trade workforce is over 54. Replacement demand is massive.

3. New industries: solar, EV, data centers, smart homes — all creating new trade categories.

4. Population growth: more people = more houses, clinics, buildings, warehouses = more trades.

The shortage isn’t a wave — it’s a tidal force that keeps pulling.

5. The Big Picture

So when someone asks, “But what if the trade school market gets saturated?”
The real answer is: It can’t. Not when we don’t even have enough schools to cover half the need.

Our bootcamp-style programs aren’t just another option.
They’re the only model fast enough, flexible enough, and scalable enough to fill the gap before the shortage gets worse.

👉 Imagine if your city of 250,000 people had two full trade schools and five micro-bootcamps offering HVAC, welding, dental assisting, and IT sales. Would unemployment drop? Absolutely. Would jobs still be waiting? Without question.

That’s the opportunity staring us in the face.